FLU and PNEUMONIA
Background: Pneumonia and Influenza (that usually is called Flu) are ranking causes of hospitalization and death in the US and produce about 60,000 deaths each year. The risk of these diseases often are considered together as they can interact, but Pneumonia is a larger cause of death than Influenza. Values for incidence of Flu and Pneumonia are taken together in US health statistics and in Life Ahead as estimates of those that contract the disease that require hospitalization. A very much larger number of people experience these disease less seriously and recover in the home environment.
Vaccinations: About 65% of the older population that is involved take flu shots each year, and these are usually 70% effective in preventing a hospitalization and 80% effective in reducing deaths from this disease. Somewhat fewer persons take pneumonia shots each year, but these shots can be effective for at least several years. The diseases cause relatively few deaths before age 65 but deaths increase rapidly after this age. Deaths rates for those of 85 and over equal those from COPD for these ages. A taking of the shots that usually is simple and painless and is paid for by Medicare for those that qualify is a simple and most effective way to reduce what can be a serious risk of both hospitalization and a premature death.
Because about 65% of the older people that are most susceptible to Flu and 55% of those most susceptible to Pneumonia now take the shots, death rates in the NIH statistics reflect a population average of those that take shots and those that do not take them. The actual disease and death rates for those that do not take the shots are estimated at 83% higher or, a factor of 1.83 times the present NIH values. Some other factors affect the risk of serious Flu and Pneumonia disease.
Smoking: Not surprisingly, cigarette smokers suffer a significantly increased risk of suffering these diseases and dying from them. Life Ahead computes that men that smoke 20 cigarettes per day for 40 years have a risk of suffering serious flu or pneumonia of 1.7 times that of non-smokers. Women smoking the same amounts obtain a risk of 1.6 times that of non-smokers. These risk vary as per the general smoking risk model for amount smoked, time of smoking, and years smoking has been stopped, and are included in Life Ahead valuations.
Alcohol: Numerous references confirm that alcohol users suffer much increased risk of obtaining both pneumonia and the flu. One author cites that those consuming 80 grams per day or more of alcohol - or about 3+ equivalent drinks a day - had a 3.9 times higher risk of pneumonia. It appears that the moderate alcohol consumption of 2-3 drinks per day hat does not seriously increase risk of cardiovascular diseases and diabetes can be very harmful to the risk of pneumonia and flu. No adequate research was found the quantifies or confirms this risk for alcohol, and thus this risk cannot be included in Life Ahead. But this evidence confirms further that alcohol consumption for health should not be higher than the 7 to 10 drinks per week found optimum in the alcohol paper included on this site. It also has been noted that up to 80% of those consuming excessive alcohol also are cigarette smokers. The combination of smoking and alcohol can be particularly deadly not only by lowering immunity to many diseases but by increase the risk of mouth and throat cancer more than twenty times. Alcohol is a mutual solvent for cigarette tar and body fluids that distributes carcinogens more intimately into the entire digestive system.
Some health writers have described benefits of alcohol consumption only from results of one or two studies that included only risk of heart disease and cited "2 or3 drinks per day" as OK. This is incorrect. It requires the sophistically analyzed results of at least a dozen top studies to determine optimum alcohol consumption with any useful accuracy. And the effect of alcohol on risks of multiple diseases including the alcohol related risk of cancer must be recognized in this determination.
Other Risk Factors: The list of risk factors for flu and pneumonia is very long. Any kind of respiratory disease as asthma, bronchitis, or emphysema can increase risk substantially. Risk becomes much higher after surgery or even during a hospitalization. Risks go higher among individuals in crowded living conditions. Use of drugs or chemotherapy will increase risks Air pollution of any kind can contribute risk. An increase in stress or anxiety or any other factor that lowers immunity to disease can induce the disease. Those with HIV and SARS can be at very high risk. One researcher found that those doing poor oral care of their teeth had a 50% higher risk of pneumonia and a 2.4 times risk of dying from the disease than did those with good oral care.
Life Ahead assumes in the base model that people will be taking regular flu and needed pneumonia shots because most of those at risk and especially health-interested persons now do take them. It includes as a reminder an added risk of flu and pneumonia a risk factor of 1.4 times for each of these shots now not taken. .
.