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NUTS and HEART DISEASE

Nuts and Cardiovascular Disease:  The eating of Nuts has been found to reduce risk of heart disease. This has been surprising because Nuts are very high in overall fat content.  Research found on Nuts is included in Table N following.  The average risk ratio for what probably was about 1 portion or ounce of Nuts per day is a risk value of 0.66, with 5-95% limits of about 0.48 to 0.84.   Life Ahead forecasts that eating this this amount of Nuts each day would reduce the overall coronary risk of a diet to 0.86 of that of an average diet.  Although the program confirms that the fat from Nuts would reduce rather than increase risk, it fails to forecast the complete risk reduction for eating nuts found by direct studies.  Thus users should know that the present Life Ahead forecast for eating Nuts may provide benefits that are somewhat conservative.

Two reasons for this discrepancy can be suggested.  First, Nuts commonly are eaten at a cocktail time that frequently involves some consumption of alcohol.  A quite small amount of accompanying alcohol could easily explain the difference in risk between the forecast risk of about 0.86 and the average measured average risk of 0.66. This imbedded inter-correlation would not be completely removed by a statistical adjustment.  Researchers should re-study risks for Nut users directly stratified by those drinking and not drinking alcohol to see if this might explain part of the benefit now ascribed to Nuts.

Nuts do include a modest amount of omega-3 fats that are beneficial.  This factor is included in the Life Ahead risk computation. But a possible reason for the discrepancy could be that the present risk value of monounsaturated fats is incompletely described by the presently included effect that is based on change in serum cholesterol.  The key to the benefit of Nuts is their very high content of monounsaturated fat.  Research shows that Nuts lower serum cholesterol more effectively than do olive oil  that has a similar high content of monounsaturated fat.  A further detailing of the risks associated with specific monounsaturated fats might improve the accuracy of Life Ahead estimates of foods such as Nuts that include large amounts of such unsaturated fats. Any further information on this would be welcome.

As noted before, there almost certainly will be components of food that are not yet fully valued by the 20 nutrient factors in Life Ahead.  A departure of a confirmed measured benefit of a food or food groups from that now forecast via the Life Ahead method can identify the possible presence of such a component that otherwise might not have been recognized, and that requires further research.